What happens when a White House that’s fanatically invested in anti-China ideology sees the globe’s balance of forces keep changing in China’s favor? So far, the second Trump administration is responding to this by trying to put maximum pressure on Russia, seeking to take away the PRC’s biggest strategic partner. Marco Rubio’s stated goal of using sanctions relief to gain concessions from Russia, and Trump’s effort to portray himself as friendly towards the Russian people, represent an expansion of the diplomatic methods Washington has recently been using in its war against China.
Since Russia’s Ukraine operation began, the U.S. has intensified its attempts to strengthen ties with Central Asian countries. Which has let it deepen its relations with countries like Kazakhstan, but with a catch: Russia and China have continued to gain bigger roles in the region as well. Russia in particular is building more intimate cultural and educational ties with its Central Asian neighbors, exemplified by the creation of Russia’s first Kazakh university. And Central Asia’s recent economic growth is bringing it closer to material independence, which the imperialists do not want it to have.
The imperialists have reacted by trying to subdue Russia as a means for thwarting China, with Biden and Trump only having different preferred methods for advancing this mission. The Biden Ukrainiacs tried to get Russia to lose its resolve by introducing an extreme nuclear threat. And the Trump team’s foreign policy guides—who aren’t “Ukrainiacs” in the same way, but are absolutely neocons—have chosen to try buying off Russia’s bourgeoisie.
They want to turn Russia’s retreat within Syria into the event that leaves Russian leadership overwhelmed, and willing to make deals with the USA, Turkey, and Kiev. They’ve gotten the Zionist entity to pivot away from Gaza towards Syria, aware that the Israeli Offense Force is crippled and must concentrate its efforts within one front. Their plan depends on the Russian ruling class gaining enough of an incentive to accept the rewards Washington will offer them, in exchange for abandoning China and leaving West Asia open to imperial aggressions.
Will this work? Looking at the way this plan’s executors are acting, and the contradictory nature of their goals, there are many factors which could undermine it. Which means they’ll keep resorting to more extreme, terroristic measures, adding to past Trumpian aggressions like murdering Soleimani.
The U.S. has failed to turn Central Asia into a neo-colonial center because Washington can’t offer the economic benefits that Russia or China do; Eurasia is already a massive hub for global development, and Washington’s tactical victory in Syria cannot change this. This event has even accelerated China’s rise by trapping the U.S. in another military quagmire, which will get even less manageable if the Zionist entity re-invades Gaza. And given the Trump team’s deep ties with the settler movement, that re-invasion will in all likelihood happen. The boldness of the Trump imperial strategy is only hurting Washington’s interests, like the Biden strategy did.
Historically, presidents and their handlers have only acted more brazenly when global events are already in their favor, while being cautious when things have gone unfavorably. Because Clinton’s presidency was right after the Soviet Union fell, Clinton took on a highly reactionary role, and the Democratic Party now felt comfortable fully betraying the working class. This represented a wider shift, wherein the U.S. ruling class became newly emboldened compared to when the USSR was still around. Presidents and their handlers once didn’t feel safe enough to wantonly impose sanctions, like they do today; they also used to be held back from invading many of the places they’ve invaded since 1991.
A power once existed which could significantly restrict them, then that power went away; but now a great new challenger has emerged, and the imperialists are struggling to find the right way of handling it. As Eurasia has gained its unprecedented strength over the last couple decades, the hegemon has been unwilling to give up its post-Soviet sanctions powers, only further expanding the economic warfare. And though the blowback from Iraq forced Washington to start avoiding direct invasions, the U.S. has brought about multiple proxy wars as part of its mission to destroy China. It’s also been massively building up military forces around China, while working to escalate in Taiwan and Korea.
Eurasia’s rise has prompted the Trump White House to adopt a seemingly more cooperative posture, with Trump claiming goodwill towards Russia while lifting some of the previous pressures upon Iran. Trump has also talked of working with China to “solve all the world’s problems,” and the founder of TikTok showed up to his inauguration after the two had met. Yet all the while, the neocons in Trump’s cabinet are underhandedly working to advance aggressions, and to create the conditions for a much larger confrontation.
The decision to halt global development aid to all countries besides Egypt and “Israel” shows the character of these warfare maneuvers. It’s a change that undoubtedly helps the anti-imperialist cause on a tactical level, cutting off crucial funding for the CIA’s NGOs; yet it’s part of an effort to consolidate imperialism’s strength, expand the genocide, and prepare for assailing East Asia.
It’s also not something that would have been done at an earlier stage in the empire’s decline; Trump didn’t de-fund USAID at the start of his first term, because back then imperialism’s crises hadn’t yet so severely damaged our economy. Trump has used rhetoric about improving the lives of the USA’s people while explaining the foreign funding cut; and though Trump won’t actually rescue the working class, he understands that the effects of liberalism’s collapse must at least be mitigated.
He’s trying to do what U.S. presidents have historically done during moments of capitalist crisis, and get imperialism onto a new course so that the capitalist machine doesn’t break down. The Trump team’s hope is to turn the empire into something that more so resembles what it was like when the Panama Canal was first built, and Washington’s global imperial role was something new. That was an era of unrestrained monopolist exploitation, as well as a moment when the ruling class successfully revitalized capitalism through a big war. The wing of the ruling class which Trump represents sees that era’s version of imperialism as preferable, so it’s trying to pivot Washington’s focus back towards our own hemisphere. The hope is that by doing this, the USA’s unraveling will be stopped.
Will the Trumpist faction succeed in carrying out this strategic shift? That’s dubious, because the Atlanticist deep state has the greater sway in government; also, the Trump wing’s desires are self-undermining, as it wants a localized imperialism yet seeks war with China. The empire is being pulled in different directions, and its internal divisions keep intensifying. Should the revolutionary forces navigate this situation correctly, and unify the people behind an effort at defeating monopoly capital, we’ll be able to take advantage of these weaknesses.
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